Enrolment Projections: The Comfort of Educated Guesswork

As January and February roll around with their usual cheer, independent international school leaders turn their attention to one of the most consequential tasks of the year: finalising budgets. These decisions shape resourcing, staffing, and which projects move forward or are put on hold. Few actions carry as strong an impact.

One of the hardest elements in building a realistic budget is projecting enrolment for the coming academic year. Several months in advance, when re-enrolment is only just beginning and prospective families are still trickling in, it can feel as though a crystal ball is required to answer the question that keeps every Director of Admissions awake at night: What will our starting number be next year?

Early in my admissions career, I was fortunate to work with a Sage colleague, William Scarborough. He patiently guided me through the importance of clear, consistent enrolment reporting and helped me overcome a long-standing aversion to numbers. With his support, I came to understand the quiet power of data—when it is collected carefully and reviewed consistently.

A few years later, after William had moved on, a Director I worked with noticed my anxiety during one of our first enrolment meetings and said something I have never forgotten: “Look, we will get this wrong. I just need to know how wrong we could get it.”

In that moment, I relaxed (somewhat). I realised that successful enrolment projections do not require a crystal ball or a magic number. What they do require is the ability to make informed, transparent estimates that help leadership teams and Boards feel more secure as they make decisions.

Over many Novembers and Jan…bruaries spent revisiting spreadsheets and scenarios, I learned to pay attention to the dots that connect. Several areas of knowledge consistently helped me get closer to reality.

Know your stakeholders

I always began with current enrolment as my baseline. From there, I removed graduating classes and looked at families, not individual students, to assess likely retention. This meant knowing them - as much as I could have.

Were they placed through an embassy or a company? How long are postings typically? Are there children graduating soon? Have there been recent conversations about changes or exceptions to usual processes?

For families paying out of pocket, I asked different questions: Could tuition increases influence their decision? Were there experiences during the year that might prompt a move?

This level of insight depends on being deeply connected to what is happening in the school and maintaining close relationships with Principals, Counsellors and Curriculum Coordinators. It is one of the many reasons Admissions and Enrolment Directors must have a seat at the leadership table: this is where emerging issues, changes, and plans are discussed.

Numbers are your friends

I resisted numbers for a long time. I had never loved maths. But with gentle guidance, I began creating enrolment reports that were updated weekly, followed the same structure, and allowed for easy comparison over time. Before I knew it, I had years of data at my fingertips.

Yes, international school populations are fluid, and patterns are never guaranteed. Still, there is real power in looking at past and present data to inform future estimates. A clear, one-page enrolment report that offers a whole-school snapshot is invaluable for leadership teams.

School operations matter

I never discounted what was happening on the ground. Were some classes full while others had little demand? Was this signalling a demographic dip? Was the campus expanding in certain areas or already at capacity in others?

An intimate understanding of school operations, though sometimes anecdotal, often provided useful context for interpreting or predicting numbers.

Keep an eye on the wider world

Finally, enrolment does not exist in a vacuum. I always paid close attention to what was happening beyond the school gates: shifts within key sending companies, changes in local or global economic conditions, geopolitical developments, or unexpected events.

This is also where Boards of Trustees can be incredibly helpful. Often drawn from diplomatic circles or senior corporate leadership, Board members are attuned to broader movements and can bring valuable insight into enrolment discussions.

Yes, projections will be wrong. That is inevitable. But getting them wrong within manageable parameters is very much within our control. The information we gather, how thoughtfully we collect it, and how carefully we interpret it can bring us closer to the truth, and help schools plan with greater confidence.